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I would be willing to state that the level of technology a society achieves is directly related to availaible energy per capita (per person).

Now that's an interesting thought! I'd like to hear more about this. Is this your own idea, or have you heard it elsewhere? I wonder how you could study this. Have there been any studies? Anyone have more information about this?

The very idea is fascinating. It would give a baseline for predicting the potential achievements of a society. And might even allow us to score ourselves based on our achievements per generation.

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Ahh, i think i would enjoy talking to you in person second chance. And you too grandpa trout, it must be the game, it attracts a certain type of personality that just so happens to give a damn about the world. Anyway, the thing about alternitave energy sources at the moment is that they are eithr too high tech and not a viable option or are not really green or are just inefficent. The biggest and best hope is to not stop using oil, but to use a different SOURCE of oil.
After much research and an highly skeptical personality it became apparent that the probabilty of this mans views on hemp being used as a source of oil www.jackherer.com is very high.

Jwk...comander of =HEMP HUNGRY MONKEY=
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It took a while to find the paper where I first read this idea. The concept is assumed in the paper.

dieoff.com/page125.htm

On the sites main page here

dieoff.com

You can click the graphs to get to the main papers.

I think the thesis - energy per capita == technological complexity is correct because energy is the key to any amplification of human ability. From calculating machines to dirt movers. Even a brilliant machine is worthless without an energy source.

Bronze age societies were powered by massive biological solar collectors - grain fields. The the machines that burned this fuel were human bodies (and domestic animals).

[Edit]
I think energy density also needs to be factored in. Grain makes a good energy source, and the pyramids and Great Wall, and most early cities were built with grain. But you cannot forge iron into steel with grain. Or blow glass objects. For that you need charcoal (or coal, or natural gas). Some energy sources are very easy to concentrate - like oil. Or get turned into something easy to concentrate, like electricity.

Less sure how to measure this one.

-Gtrout

I have already developed a more complex system, but i shall not type it here. The links are very good

Jwk...comander of =HEMP HUNGRY MONKEY=
www.i-war2.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=310

The Olduvai theory has been called unthinkable, preposterous, absurd, dangerous, self-fulfilling, and self-defeating.

To the above one might also add "self-centered" in reference to the person who developed the theory. It appears to me he is using his own little field of expertise to derive a "world formula" that explains "everything". The engineer who "a teacher of engineers" is apparently looking for self-confirmation as to his own importance in the technical world and is ignoring many other systemic factors from faculties that he apparently can't/doesn't comprehend (or want to use).
Using energy isn't what makes people happy, but it does make engineers like the guy who wrote the theory, happy, because it confirms his self defined contribution to society. (and thus his purpose of existance?)


To me it looks like his theory is lacking in many areas, and bases the assumptions on the single issue of energy production per capita.

The only thing that really proves to me, is:
a) the energy is being used by a very small and very priviledged proportion of the world population.

b) the rest of the population continues to propogate itself at a rate independent of the energy avaliable to them.

c) our efforts to educate the larger portion of the population on birth controll are apparently not effective

d) Birth control is apparently working in the industrialized nations because the population increase has obviously stagnated there.


Something I miss:
Where are the results of all our efforts to conserve energy factored in to the reduced amount of energy produced/used? The same goes for the increased effeciency we've achieved. Just a simple example: The mileage per gallon for Automobiles and Airplanes has doubled in the past 20 years and is targeted to be doubled again within 10 years.
(not to mention other things like better heat insulation on housing, improved industrial processes ect.)

The theory has some good points and should be taken seriously as a warning that we will run out of oil someday and are thus challenged to find other sources. It seems contradictory and very one-sided in many other points though.

Sarcastically speaking, it just "proves" that after this guy is gone the world will be in his opinion in a much worse state than before.



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Already taken into account.

Jwk...comander of =HEMP HUNGRY MONKEY=
www.i-war2.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=310